Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Jacksonville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professofr at Wright State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at their acceleratee pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton MetropolitanStatistical Area, which includes Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projectedx to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third That would drop employmenft to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firsgt quarter of the year, a 2 percent decline. The hardest-hi area is one the Dayton area has longrelief on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynoe said.
Forecasts from the report show employmenr in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the firsg quarter of this year to 36,109 by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percengt drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and servicer employment are also expectedto decrease. Retail employmentr is expected to dropto 39,100 by the thire quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsrt quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Servicw employment, which includes financial service, business service, utilitiesz and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the firstg quarter, a nearly 1 percentg decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasant time forthe region,” Trayno r said. Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonalo employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsty quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time perio last year.
One area of employment that isn’gt expected to be hit hard is health In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by the thirde quarter, going up to 56,509 from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of decline in gross domestic productwill slow, but remaih negative through the third quarted and maybe into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does become positive it will take some time for employmentg to pick up because it is a laggint indicator of economic recovery. Traynor said therw is a great deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determine the impacgt ofgovernment actions.
Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not going awayanytime soon. “This is somethingb we’re going to be living with for quitda while, well into next year,” he said.