Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Baltimore Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually high sincr double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicteds that the current economic downturm will end around September but that the unemploymenrt rate will remain high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does afte r a recession, Regalia said. Inflation, however, loomws as a potential problem because of thefedera government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he said.
If this stimulus is not unwound once the economy begins to higher interest rates could choke off improvementr in the housing market andbusinessx investment, he said. “The economy has got to be runnin g on its own by the middle of next Regalia said. Almost every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was precedexd by heavydebt levels, he noted. The chances of a double-diop recession will be lower if Ben Bernankr is reappointed chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regalia said. If Presidenrt Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larrty Summers, to chair the Fed, that would signal the monetaryu spigot would remain open for a longer time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obams administrationis “not something the markets want to Regalia said. Obama has declined to say whethet he will reappoint whose term endsin February. Meanwhile, more than half of smal l business owners expect the recession to last at leasty anothertwo years, according to a survehy of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect theit own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilities but bearish on the factores they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Evenh in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunitiee to seize.
” A separate survey of small business owner s by found that 57 percent thought the economgy wasgetting worse, while 26 percent though the economy was improving. More than half plannedd to decrease spending on busines s development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’se Web site.